The Long Tail of social networking – online dating sites and the internet dating bubble

Online dating sites are rife on the internet these days.  It seems that just about every demographic has its own specialized dating site.  Everyone and their mother has their own specialized site.  User segmenting characteristics include:

·         Age

·         Wealth

·         school attended

·         relationship/marital status (sites for those already in relationships)

·         sexual orientation

·         casual vs. long term intention

·         religion

·         health/medical afflictions

·         location

·         attractiveness

·         personality assessment based

·         profession

·         music interests

·         athletic interest

·         tattoo interest

The concept is even being experimented with by breeders in zoos (http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/tech/science/2006-08-15-orangutan-online-dating_x.htm?POE=TECISVA) as one attempt to test orangutan comparability shows.

With so many sites, are there actually enough people to make them all worthwhile?  And how do they all make money? 

The monetization schemes from these sites include everything from completely free (okcupid), to fully paid (match.com), to freemium models. Match.com is the major player in the industry in terms of revenues and add spending, forcing other sites to go further into the ‘long tail’ to get specialized users.   But has the market become over saturated?

A google search for topics related to online dating and monetization strategies brings up a plethora of conferences, how-to-make-money-by-opening-your-own-online-dating-site matches, and other related pages that give the indication that this is being promoted as a huge and growing industry.  The AARP just announced this month that it is teaming up with HowAboutWe.com to start its own dating website platform for older singles.

For anyone who has read the book ‘panics, manias and crashes’, there is a reference to indicators of a bubble being when “spinsters, widows, clergymen, magistrates, …” were found to participate.  While these were referring to investors and not consumers of a specific product, the variety of demographic segments referenced is definitely encompassed by the ever expanding universe of online dating sites.  There has already been some consolidation on the industry (match.com bought okcupid) and a transition to mobile (okcupid, match.com, grindr) based interactions. It remains to see when the dust clears if the long tail of online dating will remain as long or whether this tail can be consolidated into fewer sites with options to service niche user segments.