At this point it seems to be common knowledge that the publishing world is being threatened by the rapid advent of the internet and digital world. The big question seems to be, can they survive by bridging over to digital content? And, will there be enough consumption to support it?
Given the above, this article caught my eye:
http://www.emarketer.com/Article.aspx?R=1009379&ecid=a6506033675d47f881651943c21c5ed4
In the article, it says that according to their eMarketer estimates digital ad revenues are expected to grow in the upcoming years and compensate for the generally declining print ad revenues. For example, according to their estimates US ad revenue for magazines will increase from 1.9% in 2011 to 2.6% in 2012, primarily driven by double digit digital ad revenue. Magazine revenue growth is projected to continue through 2016 although at declining rate of growth--I presume as the industry stabilizes.
While the future for magazines looks relatively stable according to eMarketer's projections, it does not predict the same future for newspapers. For newspapers it predicts a decline in total US ad revenue of -5.9% in 2012 and a continued slip in the future years (from $22.53bil in 2012 to $20.4bil in 2016).
So, according to eMarketer's projections, the magazine publishers might be able to survive and ride this digital wave, but the future continues to look grim for newspapers.
Interesting article, Michelle! Two thoughts:
ReplyDelete1) Just saw this article about threats to traditional publishing's biggest cash cow, textbooks:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/02/school-district-rebuilds-_0_n_1933327.html
An all-digital classroom sounds good to me, especially considering the concerns that were in the media a few years ago about the effects on kids' spines of bookbags stuffed full of hardback textbooks...
2) I'm guessing newspapers are going to have to consolidate (or just close their doors), given the declining ad revenue. But given that there is some demand for purely local news, I wonder if regional newspapers (e.g. the Charlotte, NC, "Observer") will have "bureaus" or "correspondents" in the more major towns around them to report on events in, say, Greenville, SC.